Heightened uncertainty following US elections

While the policy agenda of a Trump presidency remains unclear, two of his pledges could have significant ramifications for global trade and GDP growth: protectionism and fiscal stimulus.

Summary
 
• While the policy agenda of a Trump presidency remains unclear, two of his pledges could have significant ramifications for global trade and GDP growth: protectionism and fiscal stimulus.
 
• The US economy could see a short-term boost to growth through the fiscal stimulus, but in the longer term would suffer from lower international trade.
 
• Pressure is already felt in EMEs due to capital outflows and tightening financing conditions. This is likely to continue as protectionist measures in the US could weigh on their medium term growth outlooks.

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